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Clear Thinking

Structured Analytic Techniques and Strategic Foresight Analysis for Decisionmakers

Specificaties
Gebonden, blz. | Engels
Springer | 2024
ISBN13: 9783031487651
Rubricering
Hoofdrubriek : Mens en maatschappij
Springer e druk, 2024 9783031487651
Verwachte levertijd ongeveer 9 werkdagen

Samenvatting

This book enables analysts in government and the private sector as well as policy advisors and decision makers to assess global risks and opportunities systematically, make well-founded and informed decisions, and anticipate the unanticipated. The authors illuminate the basics of intuitive and analytical thinking and how structured techniques can mitigate the impact of cognitive biases, misapplied heuristics, and intuitive traps. Three case studies illustrate how to apply over 30 Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) with step-by-step instructions. The final chapter focuses on how to optimize the impact of your analytic product, be it a paper, briefing, or digital display.

Specificaties

ISBN13:9783031487651
Taal:Engels
Bindwijze:gebonden
Uitgever:Springer
Verschijningsdatum:29-2-2024

Over Randolph Pherson

Randolph H. Pherson is president of Pherson Associates, LLC; CEO of Globalytica, LLC; and a founding director of the nonprofit Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. He teaches advanced analytic techniques and critical thinking skills to analysts in the government and private sector. Mr. Pherson collaborated with Richards Heuer Jr. in developing and launching use of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, and he developed several analytic techniques for the CIA’s Sherman Kent School, many of which were incorporated in his Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques. He coauthored Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence with Katherine Hibbs Pherson, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action with Sarah Miller Beebe, and several other guides for analysts on writing, briefing, indicators, and managing the production process. Mr. Pherson completed a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community in 2000, last serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector General’s staff, and was chief of the CIA’s Strategic Planning and Management Staff. He is the recipient of the Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service as NIO and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his B.A. from Dartmouth College and an M.A. in international relations from Yale University.

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Inhoudsopgave

Chapter 1. Setting the Stage.- Chapter 2. Understanding How We Think: System I and System 2.- Chapter 3. Conceptualizing Your Topic.- Chapter 4. Blackout In Berlin!.- Chapter 5. Terror in Stockholm.- Chapter 6. Conflict or Cooperation in the Arctic?.- Chapter 7. Optimizing the Impact of Your Product.- Chapter 8. Outlook.

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