Behavioral Decision Making

I Individual Decision Making.- 1 Psychology of Risky Decisions.- Models of Risky Choice.- Contingent Processing in Risky Choice.- Task Complexity.- Information Display.- Response Modes.- Quality of Option Set.- Frameworks for Task and Context Effects.- A Production System Approach to Models of Strategy Selection in
Choice.- Summary.- References.- 2 The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.- The Evaluation of Prospects.- The Framing of Acts.- The Framing of Contingencies.- The Framing of Outcomes.- Discussion.- References.- 3 Decisional Variance.- Personality and Decision Making.- Cognitive Style and Decision Making.- Cognitive Style and the Design of Decision Support Systems (DSS).- Contingent Decision Behavior.- Decisional Style or Contingent Decision Making?: Some Useful Methodology from Personality Psychology.- References.- 4 Cognitive Approaches to Decision Making.- Developments in Cognitive Psychology.- Identification of Separate Stages.- Complex Processing Models.- Applications of the Cognitive Approach.- Decision Strategies.- Perceptual Aspects of Decision Making.- Future Developments.- Notions of Limited Capacity.- Elementary Information-Processing Stages.- Conclusion.- References.- II Small-Group Decision Making.- 5 Social Interdependence and Decision Making.- Interdependent Preferences.- Empathy and Altruism.- Envy and Social Comparison.- The General Problem.- Interdependence Structures: Changing the Rules.- Conclusion.- References.- 6 Combining Individual Judgments.- Why Groups?.- Aggregation Methods.- Mathematical Aggregation.- Estimation of Unknown Quantities.- Weighting Individual Judgments.- Discrete Probability Judgments.- Probability Density Functions for Continuous Quantities.- Evaluative Judgments and Preferences.- Aggregation of Verbal Judgments.- Behavioral Aggregation.- Group Process and the Judgment Task.- Input Variables.- Conformity.- Polarization.- Effectiveness of Behavioral Aggregation.- Mixed and Aided Aggregation.- Conclusion.- References.- III Organizational Decision Making.- 7 Organizational, Group, and Individual Decision Making in Cross-Cultural Perspective.- Japanese versus American Decision-Making Processes.- Managerial Communication.- Managerial Values.- Interaction between the Task and Decision-Making Style.- Group Polarization.- Individual Decision Making under Uncertainty.- Practical Implications of Cross-Cultural Research on Decision Making.- References.- 8 Contexted Decision Making: A Socio-organizational Perspective.- Decision Making in Organizations: Conventional Analyses.- The Social Process Critique.- The Structural Power Critique.- Studying Decision Making in Organizations.- The Communicative Rationality Critique.- Conclusion.- References.- 9 Sociological Approaches to Power and Decisions.- Three Conceptions of Power.- Decisional or Pluralist Accounts of Power.- Nondecisionalism or the Two Faces of Power.- Radical Approaches to Power.- Conclusion: The Case of Business Power.- References.- 10 Decision Making in Organizations: The Effective Use of Personnel.- A Brief Historical Background.- Occupational Psychology’s Decision-Making Framework.- Scientific Management—The Forerunner.- Taylor’s Work in Relation to Occupational Psychology.- Personnel Selection and Decision Making.- Validation Studies.- Tests and Discrimination.- The Criterion Problem.- Statistical Decision Methods in Selection.- Selection Interviewing.- Practical Recruiting and Selecting of Staff.- Training Staff.- Employee Appraisal.- Payment for Work.- Implementing Personnel Decisions.- Leadership.- Participation at Work.- Organizational Design and Development.- Bargaining: Conflict and Power.- Conclusion.- References.- IV Improving Decisions: The Role of Decision Aids.- 11 Design of Decision-Aiding Systems.- A Taxonomy of Decision Aids.- Type 1—Bootstrapping Aids.- Type 2—Recomposition Aids.- Type 3—Problem-Structuring Aids.- Problem Representation Based on the Nature of the Structure.- Built-in Structure.- Assumed Structure.- Elicited Structure.- Principal Considerations in System Design.- Model Selection.- Use of External Data Base.- User-System Interface.- Monitoring the Decision Maker.- Decision Aids as a Statistical Monitor.- Control in a Decision-Making Process.- Implementations of Decision Support Technology.- Summary.- References.- 12 Handling Uncertainty: Levels of Analysis of Decision Problems.- Types of Uncertainty.- Handling Uncertainty.- Levels of Abstraction in Representing Decision Problems.- Level 1: Concrete Operational: Making “Best Assessments”.- Level 2: Formal Operational: Sensitivity Analysis.- Level 3: Developing Structure within a Single Structural Variant.- Level 4: Problem-Structuring Languages.- Level 5: Scenarios Exploring Small Worlds.- Higher Levels of Abstraction.- Implications of the Multilevel Scheme for Supporting Organizational Decision Making.- Implications of the Multilevel Scheme for the Study of Intuitive Decision Making.- References.- 13 Decisions in Design: Analyzing and Aiding the Art of Synthesis.- Design Decisions and Design Methods.- Decision Making in the Design Process.- Aiding Design Decision Making.- Extrapolations from Contemporary Decision Theory.- Methodologies for “Open” Problems in Design.- Conclusions.- References.- V Judgmental Forecasting.- 14 Prediction, Diagnosis, and Causal Thinking in Forecasting.- The Diagnostic Process.- On the Psychology of Spurious Correlation.- Implications.- Conclusion.- References.- 15 A Comparative Evaluation of Objective and Subjective Weather Forecasts in the United States.- Weather Forecasting Procedures and Practices: An Overview.- Objective versus Subjective Forecasts.- Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation Occurrence.- Categorical Forecasts of Maximum and Minimum Temperatures.- Categorical Forecasts of Cloud Amount.- Recent Trends in Forecast Quality.- Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation Occurrence.- Categorical Forecasts of Maximum and Minimum Temperatures.- Categorical Forecasts of Cloud Amount.- Subjective Weather Forecasting: Role and Impact of Objective Forecasts.- Weather Forecasting and Forecasting in Other Fields: Similarities and Differences.- Summary and Conclusion.- References.- IV Decision Theory: Areas of Future Impact.- 16 Education and Decision Theory: A Personal View.- Restructuring the Institution.- Rethinking the Curriculum.- Reexamining Assessment.- Aggregating Components.- Marking Components.- Scoring Multiple-Choice Items.- Conclusion.- References.- 17 Choice Decision and the Anticipation of Events.- Introduction: Choosing an Approach.- A Brief Description of Personal Construct Theory.- The Fundamental Postulate and Corollaries.- The Nature of Constructs.- Dimensions of Transition.- Construing Danger.- The Perception of Danger.- Dimensions of Transition and Corollaries Relevant to the Perception of Danger.- Games and Imperfect Rationality.- A Primitive Game.- PCT Interpretation of the Game.- PCT Applied to War Games and Driving Games.- A Suitable Theory for Describing and Explaining Decision-Making Processes.- References.